This Statistic Can Determine How Likely It Is You Will Catch The Coronavirus

No, there is nothing in the world that can tell you exactly if you will catch the Coronavirus due to the massive number of variables. However, we have something really close to that, as stated by a well-known mathematician. The statistic in question should be tracked closely so that we have a clearer idea of how possible we are of getting the virus.

The static is called RO, or basic reproduction number and Jeff Rosenthal, a statistics professor at the University of Toronto, said that our only chance of containing the pandemic is to keep the number below 1.

For now, RO of the COVID-19 is between 1.4 and 2.5, meaning one infected person will likely transmit the virus to 2.5 more people. If the current state does not change, our chance of keeping the pandemic under control is zero.

Rosenthal said that if RO was bigger than 1, it would keep getting larger but if it was smaller than 1, it would get smaller until the pandemic died out, which sums up our whole effort to fight off the Coronavirus.

You may feel that there is little we can do against an invisible enemy which is spreading at an alarming rate all over the globe, Rosenthal emphasized that in this kind of war a little can mean a lot.

What he meant here is that if everyone washes their hands as instructed and do not touch their faces, the chance of them getting or transmitting the virus is lessened.

India has a small number of people contracting the virus in comparison with other nations like China, Japan, or Korea, so what health officials do is to quarantine the infected and ask them where they have gone to and who they have talked to.

However, as the RO gets bigger, the number of people that need to be test increases and with a limited number of people who have the necessary skills to deal with the virus, things might get out of hands.

The worst scenario is when the virus reaches a point when it has infected a large portion of the population.

The mortality rate of the virus is another cause for concern. While regular flu only claims the life one out of 1,000 patients having it, this rate is 1/50 with COVID-19. So if RO remains this high, we are talking about a lot of destruction.

So far, India has done a good job keeping the number of cases low, of course when compared to other nations in the world but the virus can still seep in.

There have been some theories surfaced explaining why a densely populated nation like India can be able to keep such a low number of infected cases.

Some say that since the virus can be transmitted through body fluid droplets, the humidity of India has limited its range of infection. While there is scientific evidence to back this claim, we should not rely entirely on the hot and humid weather and let our guard down.

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