Not Just 21 Days, India Needs A 49-Day Lockdown To Contain The Spread Of CO.VID-19

As a result of a new mathematical model made by two Indian-origin researchers at the University of Cambridge, India needs a 49-day lockdown with periodic relaxation, covering the best parts of two months to successfully curb the spread of CO.VID-19.

The scientists behind this model are Ronojoy Adhikari and Rajesh Singh of the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics. According to their study, the 21-day lockdown the government is enforcing is unlikely effective as the pandemic will surge right after the order is lifted.

This mathematical model is arguably the first to take India’s social contact structure and age of the country’s population into consideration.

The study looks into the impact of working from home, school closure, and social distancing.

As stated by the authors, conducting extensive testing will provide valuable information on the number of cases, which will be of tremendous help to increase the accuracy of the model.

However, the researchers warn that there were uncertainties in their parameters, which could lead to uncertainties in the results and estimations. To reduce the chances of having these inaccuracies, the experts need more information on case data.

A three-week lockdown is proven by the study to be insufficient and instead, the duo suggests a sustained lockdown with relaxation. They said that a 49-day scheme will be more effective in reducing the number of cases and making quarantine and social distancing feasible.

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