India Detects Only 1 In 4 Cases Of CO.VID-19, Mathematical Model Shows

Arni SR Srinivasa Rao, a mathematician and the Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modelling’s director, and his peer Steven Kranz, University of Washington’s professor of mathematics, have been trying to use math to assess the real magnitude of CO.VID-19 infection in many countries all over the world.

What they found out is the ratio of confirmed cases in Spain, the US, Italy, China, and India on the projected number of actual cases of infection.

What the duo uses is the Meyer wavelet to visualize the distinction between what they project and the number of cases each country reports. The higher the wave, the larger number of infected people going unreported.

Their work shows that in China, the ratio of reported cases on those unreported is between 1/149 and 1/1104. In Spain, South Korea, and Italy, this figure is 1/53, 1/4, and 1/4 respectively.

The US and Germany seem to top the chart with one out of three and two out of three cases detected.

For India, the figure is 1 out of 4. Before this, Rao has developed mathematical models for HIV, swine flu, and avian flu in the country.

Explaining why different models might yield different results, Professor Rao said there was a variation in techniques and parameters used in each model.

He also shared that the most pressing issue is to deeper understand the dataset.

When asked about the purpose behind this study, Rao said it was necessary to understand to real magnitude of the pandemic.

Speaking of the situation in India, Rao remarked that at the end of March, the country might have identified only 1 out of 4 cases. However, what matters is that we do not know the other three do, they might go out infecting others or take proper precaution measures.

He praised the swift action of the Central and State Governments as well as the Indian Council of Medical Research, saying that they are flowing the right direction.

Rao also highlighted the importance of curbing the spread of CO.VID-19 among the 60+, claiming that India would not see a huge number of ICU admission if this is done properly.

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