A Math Equation May Prove That China Has Been Reporting Fake Data On Coronavirus Infections And Deaths
Dhir Acharya - Feb 11, 2020
China has been reporting the number of coronavirus infected cases and deaths to the WHO, which is public worldwide, but that data may be fake.
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The world is currently in the fear of the coronavirus with infected cases and death counts increasing day by day, especially in China. While many people are looking forward to scientists creating a vaccine to save people from the epidemic, others are questioning if China is honest about the virus’ impact on its people’s lives.
A Reddit user thinks that China is reporting coronavirus infected cases and deaths lower than the actual figures using a math equation that has been accurate until now.
Publicly, there have been over 43,000 confirmed cases around the world along with more than 1,000 deaths from the virus, and the figures go up every day. The coronavirus outbreak also seems to heavily affect this year’s Mobile World Congress, which is set to take place in a few weeks.
Part of the concerns around the coronavirus arises from the authoritarian regime of the Chinese government and its tendency to hide facts to make people think that it’s handling the coronavirus outbreak very well.
Math equation versus reported data
How can one prove that the public data on the coronavirus infection in China is fake? The answer to this question may like in a subReddit that calls itself ‘the front page of the internet.’
Specifically, a Reddit user posted on the platform, trying to break down the sophisticated data, turning hem from a visual form to charts and graphs. The user, called Antimonic, also came up with a math equation based on the coronavirus infection and death counts that China reported to the WHO.
But the equation revealed a scary thing, based on the data previously revealed, Antimonic has predicted the future of the outbreak.
Posted on February 5, his equation predicts the number of cases China reported to the World Health Organization within an error margin. In other words, this equation follows a mathematical model’s principles and it’s highly accurate. Especially, the predictions generated for February 7, February 8, and February 9 were all amazing.
According to WHO, on Feb 7, there are 31,211 confirmed cases and 637 deaths in China. On the same day, Antimonic’s equation predicted 30,573 confirmed cases and 639 deaths. Then on Feb 8, while China reported 34,598 infected cases with 723 deaths, the equation predicted 34,506 infected cases with 721 deaths. And on Feb 9, China reported 37,.251 infected cases along with 812 deaths while the equation predicted 38,675 confirmed cases along with 808 deaths.
But how is it related to China reporting fake data?
Using a mathematical logic and some conspiracy theory, Antimonic generated the data that shows a predictable growth in the number of infected cases and death counts in the coronavirus outbreak, which is easy because the figures appear to follow a graph.
At the same time, another user on Reddit nicely summed up the discrepancy in the data reported by China. The user wrote that is a relatively serious disease is contained fairly well, it could fit the curve in the long term. However, there would be much more variation and noise due to medical and logistical countermeasures. The data reported by China doesn’t have such natural variations, which makes it suspicious.
This Reddit speculation is not the first thing that raises questions around China’s released figures about the coronavirus outbreak. Long before the WHO or CDC officially warned about the coronavirus outbreak in China, an AI startup in Canada had already known that the infected cases were multiplying in the country from December 31 last year.
Furthermore, over a week ago, Tencent, the second largest conglomerate in China, accidentally showed 154,023 infected cases and 24,589 deaths, different from and tens of times more than what the country reported publicly.
So if you have long suspected something spooky in how China is handling this epidemic, you’re surely not the only one and the suspicion only seems to get bigger and bigger.