This Computer Model Can Help Accurately Predict India’s Pollution Levels In Advance

With the “smog season” coming to India in just a few months, the US and Chinese scientists have come up with a computer model that can accurately predict months earlier the levels of air pollution in the region. The Science Advances journal describes the statistical model of using certain ocean-related climatic patterns that affect northern India’s wintertime air pollution in a regulatory way.

India has been one of the most polluted countries in the world. Last year, fine particles PM 2.5 levels in Delhi as well as other north Indian states soared over 500 micrograms per cubic meter. The State of Global Air 2019 report which came out earlier this year stated that, in 2017, there were more than 1.2 million Indian people died because of air pollution. With this new model, the government can forecast winter’s aerosol pollution conditions. And they can base on the prediction to have suitable plans to control pollution.

Meng Gao from Harvard University’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences said:

The researchers obtain these indicators calculated based on geopotential height fields and sea surface temperature in autumn. The built model will then predict whether air pollution in the winter is bad or not.

The researcher took note of how India’s neighbor-China is taking serious measures to control air pollution.

The study pointed out that it was the combination of El Nino and the Antarctic Oscillation that caused the wintertime aerosol pollution’s variability over northern India. Gao said that for India, there is no study to tell you a season in advance what will happen. But this study even points out the dominant climate factor contributing to the air pollution problem in the country, something that has never been done before.

Both AAO-induced anomalies and El Nino SST-sea surface temperature can last from autumn to winter, allowing a forecast for northern India’s wintertime aerosol pollution.

To predict wintertime AOD, researchers from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and Fudan University built a multivariable regression model that incorporates AAO and El Nino indices. They observe that the prediction has a high consistency degree.

In the previous study, Gao emphasized how residential emissions and power plants contribute to India’s air polluting problem. Therefore, in order to tackle the issue, India must first address these two sectors. Gao suggested that the country can replace power plants using coal with renewable energy like solar and wind. Reducing household cooking’s usage is also needed.

He advised the government of India to learn about policy implementation from the Chinese government. However, since the two countries’ conditions are not alike, India needs high-quality research to come up with a specific policy.