Just 1 CO.VID-19 Patient Can Infect 406 Others In 30 Days If Not Found

Dhir Acharya - Apr 10, 2020

A recent study by ICMR reveals how many people can get infected from 1 CO.VID-19 patient if that patient is not found and isolated, treated in time.

Recently, ICMR carried out a study on the CO.VID-19 pandemic to produce statistics on the spread of the disease. The study was also quoted by Lav Agarwal, the Health Ministry official of India.

According to Argawal citing the study, if a CO.VID-19 patient isn’t treated or isolated, they can infect around 406 people within 30 days. In medical terms, this is called R0 or R naught, which is a basic reproductive number of a virus along with a metric used for describing contagiousness.

But with timely preventive measures, the number can go down from 406 to just 2.5 in 30 days, the official said. He also said that the R0 figure for SARS-CoV-2 is from 1.5 to 4. Agarwal said:

“If we take the ‘R0’ to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days of the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 85 percent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons.”

From this, he reiterated that the 21-lockdown is essential for India.

covid-19 india — If a CO.VID-19 patient isn’t treated or isolated, they can infect around 406 people within 30 days

With the help of technological advancements, cities are applying predictive analytics in monitoring the spread of the pandemic, including geo-fencing, and heat maps. He added that there have been positive results from cluster containment strategies, especially in East Delhi, Bhilwara, Pathanamthitta, Buddh Nagar, Gautam Buddh, and Agra.

The Health Ministry official also said that the Indian government has set up three types of CO.VID-19 exclusive centers. The first type is care centers for mild cases and suspected cases, set up by converting hotels, colleges, and schools into quarantine facilities. Such areas will also have a hospital close by to recommend more patients to other care facilities.

The second type is health centers for cases with moderate symptoms, set up by using a dedicated block in hospitals or separate hospitals with separate exits and entrances. All beds in these facilities are equipped with oxygen support systems.

The third type is for critical cases as well as aging patients, in the form of coronavirus-dedicated hospitals. Certain blocks in a hospital or the entire hospital will have separate entrances and exits while all beds have their own oxygen support systems, ventilators, and ICUs.